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Assessing the Economic Impact of Covid-19 through a Counterfactual Analysis
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Publication Year
2024-03
Journal
East Asian Economic Review
Publisher
대외경제정책연구원
Citation
East Asian Economic Review, Vol.28 No.1, pp.69-94
Keyword
반사실적 분석정책적 개입Covid-19Counterfactual AnalysisIntervention Policy
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruptions across industries worldwide. This paper aims to analyze the economic impact of the pandemic on the sales performance of basic commercial areas in Seoul, Korea. Using a regression analysis with credit card transaction data, the study underscores the critical nature of determining the reference point for comparison. Firstly, in comparison to the revenue in the same quarter before the onset of the pandemic, a significant decrease in revenue was observed across most categories during the pandemic periods. Secondly, when compared to the counterfactual revenue in the same period, extrapolated by an exponential smoothing forecasting, the overall revenue decrease during the periods was less pronounced, except in a few categories. Interestingly, certain categories appeared to witness marginal increases in sales after the pandemic. The paper discusses some policy implications of these findings.
ISSN
2508-1640
Language
Eng
URI
https://aurora.ajou.ac.kr/handle/2018.oak/35974
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2024.28.1.431
Type
Article
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Rhee, Hongjai Image
Rhee, Hongjai이홍재
Department of Business Administration
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