STRATEGIC PATHWAY TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL PRESERVATION IN BURUNDI USING INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL

Abstract

The sustainable development of Burundi is limited by challenges relative to low electricity access, energy security and climate change. The country is expected to have a constant and rapidly increasing demand due a number of variables, including a high rate of population increase, a rapidly development of building, industry sectors, and the exploitation of undiscovered mineral resources. Burundi needs to prepare carefully a pathway in order to support its energy sector in the future. Burundi energy mix is characterized by its inadequate access to electricity and heavy reliance on traditional biomass use. The consumption of traditional biomass for cooking, heating and lighting makes Burundi a country with significant rate of deforestation. While the potential for solar energy, the average wind and the hydroelectric capacity recorded high and based on the country's potential, it is important to determine how renewable energy development may help Burundi develop sustainably by utilizing the natural resources that are available without compromising the environment. This research aims to assess the development of a power generation plan that will highlight Burundi's various renewable energy options in the "power generation system," opening the door for significant private sector involvement that is essential for addressing the significant challenges which the country's power sector is currently facing. It uses one of the Integrated Assessment Models, Global Change Analysis Model Energy Modeling Laboratory (GCAM- EML) to evaluate future of Burundi energy mix, evaluate the governmental implication of financial support in the development of renewables in order increase the access to electricity, meet the National Determined contributions target and preserve the environment. Applying the policy of developing hydropower energy at 60% in the energy mix reduces significantly the emissions; and taking in consideration the climate effects, the level of water in the reservoir decreases and that leads to hydropower generation declining. The solar development supported by the financial assistance compensates the gap in hydropower generation due to the climate change, increases the total generation by 16%, makes the cost of solar energy cheaper and affordable to people with low income, and lowers the emissions. By switching from the use of traditional biomass to electricity, this increase in overall electricity output contributes to the supply of electricity in building and industrial sectors; expands access to electricity and slows down the rate of deforestation. Key words: BURUNDI, Electrification rate, Sustainable development, Renewable energy development, financial support