Stochastic Analysis of Heat Pump Operation under Varying Use Scenarios in Commercial Building

Abstract

This paper analyzes the performance uncertainty of heat pump(s) of three different design cases that employ the different number (one unit, two units, three units) and sizing of heat pumps in an office building. Because the thermal behavior of a building is highly stochastic due to uncertain factors such as infiltration/ventilation, heat generation from people, lights and equipment, indoor setpoint temperature, the authors assumed three use scenarios (low/medium/high). Then, the authors used EnergyPlus simulation runs developed by US DOE and evaluated the performance uncertainty in terms of heat removal, energy consumption, PLR, and COP. It was found that the PLR and COP of the heat pump(s) are more influenced by the design cases than the use scenarios. In addition, the ranking of the design cases also varies under different cooling loads. This study suggests that for rational design making of heat pumps for a building, stochastic analysis of the system performance is necessary.