Tae Bong Kim KAGONA JULIET 2018-02 26168 https://aurora.ajou.ac.kr/handle/2018.oak/11482 학위논문(석사)--Graduate School of International Studies Ajou University :국제통상학과,2018. 2 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 BACKGROUND 1 1.2 PERFORMANCE OF COFFEE SUB SECTOR IN UGANDA 2 1.3 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 11 1.4 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 12 1.5 THE SCOPE 12 1.6 HYPOTHESIS OF THE STUDY 12 1.7 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY 12 1.8 DISPOSITION OF THESIS 13 CHAPTER 2: REVIEW OF LITERATURE 14 2.1 INTRODUCTION 14 2.2 THEORY BEHIND INTERNATIONAL TRADE. 14 2.3 EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE 15 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 19 3.1. DATA TYPES AND SOURCES 19 3.2 TESTS AND DATA ANALYSIS 19 3.3 THE MODEL SPECIFICATIONS 19 3.4 LIMITATIONS TO THE STUDY 20 CHAPTER 4: EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 21 4.1 UNIT ROOT TEST 21 4.2 ARDL ESTIMATES 22 4.3 RESIDUAL DIAGNOSTICS 27 4.4 NORMALITY TEST 28 4.5 RAMSEY RESET TEST- STABILITY TEST 28 CHAPTER 5: FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 30 5.1 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS 30 5.2 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 32 REFERENCES 33 APPENDICES 36 eng Graduate School of International Studies Ajou University 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다. AN ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE UGANDA’S COFFEE EXPORT VOLUMES FOR THE PERIOD 1990-2016. Thesis 아주대학교 국제대학원 국제대학원 국제통상학과 2018. 2 Master http://dcoll.ajou.ac.kr:9080/dcollection/jsp/common/DcLoOrgPer.jsp?sItemId=000000026168 Uganda Coffee Export Volumes ARDL Model. This paper investigates the factors that influence Uganda’s Coffee Export Volumes for the period spanning from 1990 to 2016. The hypotheses tested were that; domestic consumption of coffee reduce coffee export volumes and production of coffee, world demand for coffee and export price increase coffee export volumes. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model has been applied to estimate Cointegration relationship between coffee exports and total production, domestic consumption, world demand and export price for coffee. To conduct the empirical analysis, the October group annual time series data 1990-2016 has been used. The results reveal that total production, domestic consumption and export price have greater impact on Uganda’s coffee export volumes. The findings indicate that total production has a positive and significant impact on coffee export volumes in the short run and long run, while, domestic consumption and export price have a negative and significant impact on coffee export volumes in the long run. World demand is insignificant and has no impact on Uganda’s coffee export volumes in the short run and long run. Our policy suggestion is that in order to improve the coffee export supply, Government of Uganda should in line with the National Agriculture Policy 2011 and National Coffee Policy 2013; Strengthen the capacity of coffee farmers and farmer groups and support them to scale up farm level production and productivity, promote and support adoption of good agronomic practices at farm level and encourage use of high yielding disease resistant and drought tolerant varieties to maximize coffee export earnings sustainably.