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A framework for developing data-driven correction factors for solar PV systems
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Publication Year
2024-03-01
Publisher
Elsevier Ltd
Citation
Energy, Vol.290
Keyword
Bias correctionData validationForecasting accuracyPhysical methodPV simulationRenewable energy
Mesh Keyword
% reductionsBias correctionBias errorCorrection factorsData validationForecasting accuracyPhotovoltaic simulationPhotovoltaicsPhysical methodsRenewable energies
All Science Classification Codes (ASJC)
Civil and Structural EngineeringModeling and SimulationRenewable Energy, Sustainability and the EnvironmentBuilding and ConstructionFuel TechnologyEnergy Engineering and Power TechnologyPollutionMechanical EngineeringEnergy (all)Management, Monitoring, Policy and LawIndustrial and Manufacturing EngineeringElectrical and Electronic Engineering
Abstract
Correcting simulated solar photovoltaic (PV) output poses challenges due to the limited availability of measured PV output data. This study introduces a framework for developing correction factors capable of adjusting bias errors in hourly simulated PV output across various levels of global horizontal irradiance (GHI). GHI-dependent correction factors are developed for each PV plant, with hourly simulated PV output validated against the measured output for 37 PV plants in South Korea. Performance evaluation using U95, a measure of model uncertainty, reveals a significant reduction (by up to 0.24) in prediction errors. The reduction is largely attributed to reductions of nMBE s (by up to 0.33) and partly to reductions of nRMSE s (by up to 0.11), demonstrating mitigation of both random and bias errors. The framework exhibits a promising reduction in forecasting errors for monthly energy yields and performance ratios. Given that the proposed framework requires a short length of training data (<4 months), its versatility allows for adoption by existing software packages relying on physical PV modeling, offering potential enhancements in forecasting accuracy for practical applications.
ISSN
0360-5442
Language
eng
URI
https://dspace.ajou.ac.kr/dev/handle/2018.oak/33870
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.130096
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Type
Article
Funding
This work was supported by the new faculty research fund of Ajou University .
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Ahn, Hyeung Uk Image
Ahn, Hyeung Uk안형욱
Department of Architecture
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