학위논문(석사)--Graduate School of International Studies Ajou University :융합에너지학과,2020. 2
Alternative Abstract
Energy transitions have been a growing trend in recent years. Due to technological advances, growing global population, urbanization, and scarcity of resources, we are consuming more energy than before, and it is now imperative that we meet the growing energy demand in a sustainable manner. Like other Governments, Zimbabwe intends to take the sustainable route to meet its energy demand, however, the question remains whether Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) are economically cost-competitive in comparison to the traditional fossil fuel-fired power plants. Moreover, will the benefits of Energy Transition outweigh the costs involved. With Zimbabwe as a case study, this study utilizes the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) approach to analyze whether it is cost-competitive for Zimbabwe to install RETs (Solar Photovoltaics (PV) and Wind) instead of repowering the existing small Coal-fired power plants or to install a new Natural gas-fired power plant. Using different scenarios, the study investigates which power generation technology would be the least cost option to meet the energy demand. The study utilized both the deterministic approach and the stochastic approach using Monte Carlo simulations for calculating LCOE values. The results showed that the Coal-fired power plant is the least cost option whether Zimbabwe continues in Business As Usual or whether carbon pricing is introduced nor when the WACC rate is decreased, and even when the overnight cost of RETs fall. However, results showed that RETs are only cost-competitive under certain conditions.
Keywords: Zimbabwe, LCOE, Deterministic LCOE, Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), Energy Transition, Renewable Energy Technologies, Coal-fired power plant, Natural gas-fired power plant, Wind, solar PV.
