학위논문(석사)--Graduate School of International Studies Ajou University :국제통상학과,2018. 2
Alternative Abstract
The objective of this thesis was to determine the trade performance of Rwanda within the blocs where it belongs, namely; EAC, ECCAS, and COMESA. Gravity model was applied to analyze the determinants that influence Rwanda’s trade flows, 16 member countries of the fore mentioned blocs were considered using panel data from 2007- 2016. The major determinants of bilateral trade were: GDP, Population, Distance, Real exchange rate, EAC, COMESA. The study showed a mixture of negative and positive impacts on the bilateral trade flows. Diagnostic tests were also conducted to check the data for estimation and the three methods of estimating panel data were we used which are Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects Model, Random Effects Model as well as Panel Corrected Standard Error to correct the problem of correlation between the explanatory variables. The results indicate that the GDP of the partner countries, Rwanda’s population had a positive impact on the bilateral trade flows while bilateral distance was negative and significant as per the model theory and literature. The population of trade partners showed a negative sign and significant effect on the bilateral trade. The estimates show that the EAC and COMESA had positive effect on the bilateral trade with Rwanda while ECCAS had a negative sign with an insignificant impact.
