학위논문(석사)--Graduate School of International Studies Ajou University :국제통상학과,2018. 2
Alternative Abstract
This study investigated the causal relationship between GDP and export growth in Ghana, using the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to co-integration for the period 1990-2016. The choice of period was influenced by data availability.
Econometric evidence revealed stationarity of the variables at their first difference with the bounds test approach also confirming the existence of co-integrating relationship at the 5 percent level of significance. The long and short-run relationships also revealed that export has a positive relationship with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Ghana. These relationships were both found to be significant at the 1 percent significant level and 5 percent significant levels respectively. Also the Pairwise Granger Causality test revealed uni-directional causality between GDP and Export at the 10 percent level of Significance.
Additionally, Labor and Imports were the only variables that were found to have a positive impact on GDP growth in both the long and short-run. However, capital and Term of Trade were both found to have a positive impact on GDP in the short-run but has a negative impact on GDP in the long –run. To sustain the impacts of exports on GDP growth, Ghana must endeavor to take pragmatic measures, policies, programmes and activities that will enhance an increased export. However considering the direction of causality, it is imperative for Ghana to grow the manufacturing and other sectors of the economy to serve as the catalyst for the export growth.
