학위논문(석사)--Graduate School of International Studies Ajou University :국제통상학과,2018. 2
Alternative Abstract
It is fruitful to examine the major determinants of the trade balance in Myanmar since Myanmar has persistent trade deficit which can result in the negative impacts on the economy. This study uses a dynamic model by combining three different theoretical approaches to the balance of payments, namely the elasticity, monetary and absorption approaches, to identify the important determinants of Myanmar’s trade balance. According to the elasticity approach, real exchange rate is comprised in the model to examine whether the Marshall-Lerner condition as well as J-curve effect exists in Myanmar. In addition, money supply and domestic income are contained in the model so as to analyze the monetary and absorption views to the balance of payments. In order to test the long term and short term effects of real exchange rate, domestic income and money supply on the trade balance, cointegrating regression: Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Vector Error Correction model (VECM) are employed in this study using annual time series data from 1986 to 2015. The empirical results reveal that real depreciation improves the trade balance in the long term, the Marshall-Lerner condition holds, but no J-curve effect is found in Myanmar. This study also shows the empirical evidences that money supply and domestic income play more significant role to solve the difficulties in the trade balance, rather than real exchange rate. In order to make effective measures to improve the trade balance, Myanmar needs to pay attention to monetary, income and exchange rate policies along with the acceleration of formulating and implementing the interrelated policies to develop Myanmar’s export sector by strengthening the linkage among relevant institutions.
