학위논문(석사)--Graduate School of International Studies Ajou University :국제통상학과,2018. 2
Alternative Abstract
This paper investigates the factors that influence Uganda’s Coffee Export Volumes for the period spanning from 1990 to 2016. The hypotheses tested were that; domestic consumption of coffee reduce coffee export volumes and production of coffee, world demand for coffee and export price increase coffee export volumes.
The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model has been applied to estimate Cointegration relationship between coffee exports and total production, domestic consumption, world demand and export price for coffee. To conduct the empirical analysis, the October group annual time series data 1990-2016 has been used.
The results reveal that total production, domestic consumption and export price have greater impact on Uganda’s coffee export volumes.
The findings indicate that total production has a positive and significant impact on coffee export volumes in the short run and long run, while, domestic consumption and export price have a negative and significant impact on coffee export volumes in the long run.
World demand is insignificant and has no impact on Uganda’s coffee export volumes in the short run and long run.
Our policy suggestion is that in order to improve the coffee export supply, Government of Uganda should in line with the National Agriculture Policy 2011 and National Coffee Policy 2013; Strengthen the capacity of coffee farmers and farmer groups and support them to scale up farm level production and productivity, promote and support adoption of good agronomic practices at farm level and encourage use of high yielding disease resistant and drought tolerant varieties to maximize coffee export earnings sustainably.
